Howell: Money flowing into commodities powers cotton to fresh rally highs 
Fuente: Lubbock on Line
Money flowing into commodities one analyst called it a commodity pandemonium powered cotton futures to new rally highs last week in holidayshortened trading.The market posted gains Wednesday from the end of the prior week of 66 points to 71.07 cents in maturing December, 118 points to 75.22 cents in mostactive March, 100 points to 76.31 cents in May, 60 points to 76.86 cents in July and 32 points to 77.79 cents in December 2010.Shallow dips continued to find buying interest until the market snapped a string of six consecutive higher closes with small losses in the last session before a break for Thanksgiving. Trading volumes declined and some market participants left on an early holiday.Wet weather in parts of the Cotton Belt last weekend renewed speculation that another cut may be looming in the U.S. crop estimate. Market sentiment had been bolstered by a surprisingly strong weekly export sales report the prior week.March hit a high Wednesday of 75.74 cents before backing off on mild profittaking. Commercial selling capped the move after March edged above its high on Monday of 75.67 cents, topping its prior November high of 74.27 cents and filling a chart gap to 75.53 left on the way down in late September and early October 2008. The top of the next gap is 80.42.Cash grower sales on The Seam notched a marketing year high for the second session in a row on Monday when 17,258 bales changed hands. The cotton brought a then crop year high average price of 66.29 cents subsequently exceeded at 67.46 cents on a smaller volume reflecting premiums over loan redemption rates averaging 13.17 cents.After no December delivery notices were issued the first two days of the notice period for the first time in the memories of veteran analysts, 130 notices appeared Wednesday. All were issued by JP Morgan Futures. The big stopper was Term Commodities, trading arm of Allenberg Cotton Co., which took 99 or 76 percent.U.S. mills consumed cotton at a seasonally adjusted daily rate of 12,292 running bales last month, up about 15 percent from 10,716 bales in September but about 23 percent below 15,896 bales in October 2008, the Census Bureau reported.Consumption totaled 260,754 bales in October (four weeks), down from 279,510 bales in September (five weeks) and 333,164 bales (four weeks) in October 2008.Stocks at mills declined to 143,320 bales at the end of October from 165,041 bales a month earlier and 156,567 bales a year ago, while cotton in public storage rose to 4,718,243 bales from 3,901,997 bales the month before but down from 8,738,688 bales the year before.The annualized consumption rate of 3.333 million bales in October, up from just 2.898 million bales in September, remained below the USDA estimate for the marketing year of 3.4 million bales, down 5 percent from last season and the lowest in more than 100 years.World cotton consumption is expected by USDA to rebound about 2 percent this season, with the gap between declining foreign production and rising foreign mill use widening to an alltime high crop shortfall of 19.87 million bales.But U.S. mill use has remained anemic as apparel suppliers from the Western Hemisphere where textile exports from the United States supply goods for finishing have had difficulty competing with Asian products.While domestic mill use has plunged, U.S. consumer spending in this big retail market for goods produced at home and abroad has remained a key demand factor. Consumer spending rose a brisk 0.7 percent last month after falling 0.6 percent in September, the Commerce Department reported.On the supply side, Chinas crop now is expected to reach 6.8 million metric tons (31.232 million bales), the China Cotton Association said, up from its prior estimate of 6.7 million tons (30.773 million bales.)The CCA estimate is within less than 1 percent of USDAs latest forecast of 31.5 million bales, down from 36.7 million bales in 200809.In other news from China, cotton imports last month of 118,580 metric tons (544,628 bales) were up 16 percent from September and 23 percent from October 2008, according to customs figures.Imports since the beginning of the marketing year reached a threemonth total of 330,378 tons (1.517 million bales), down nearly 20 percent from 411,927 tons (1.892 million bales) during the corresponding period last season.Chinas bookings of U.S. upland and Pima cotton for the marketing year through Nov. 12 totaled 900,000 running bales, according to USDA figures, down 42.8 percent from 2,105,200 bales a year earlier.The 200910 Chinese commitments were 670,200 running bales of upland and 229,800 bales of Pima, compared with yearago commitments of 2.099 million bales and 6,100 bales, respectively.However, Chinese mills booked 54.8 percent of strong U.S. allcotton export sales of 268,100 running bales for the week ended Nov. 12, spawning thoughts that import buying by China may be growing more aggressive.Though overall U.S. 200910 allcotton export sales lag 37 percent behind, Pima commitments to all destinations of 400,000 running bales are up 516 percent from a year ago when 77,500 bales had been booked.On the U.S. crop scene, harvesting advanced 12 percentage points during the week ended Sunday to 72 percent done, just one point behind a year ago and three points behind the fiveyear average.Texas and Arizona were the only states where the harvest exceeded the fiveyear average. In Texas, the top cotton state, growers had harvested 70 percent, 15 points ahead of last year and 12 points ahead of average.U.S. allcotton ginned amounted to 4,962,300 running bales as of Nov. 15, down from 6,800,300 bales in 2008 and 10,098,500 bales in 2007. In Texas, ginning of 1,868,550 bales exceeded 1,485,950 bales a year earlier but trailed 2,635,050 bales two years ago.
Fuente: Lubbock on Line – Lubbock – Texas – EE.UU.
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